Schedule

Nov. 28, 2024 | 10:30 AM–12:00 PM

Room

Rm 2, Center Ballroom

Chair

Aries A. Arugay
University of the Philippines Diliman

Discussant

Winston Dean Almeda
Department of Foreign Affairs

Panel Abstract

The late Aileen S. P. Baviera, a pre-eminent scholar of International Relations, had observed that the Philippine foreign and security policies on the South China Sea were “swinging wildly from one end to the other, like a pendulum quite suddenly unhinged.” This metaphor of “pendulum swings” has captured vividly what previous studies have already characterized and what contemporary and future research have confirmed—that the Philippines was behaving erratically on different foreign policy issues such as the territorial disputes in the South China Sea. These abrupt policy shifts have left observers perplexed, prompting one to ask, rather exhaustedly, why the Philippine foreign and security policies “oscillate so much.” The seeming perplexity of the Philippine approach matches the complexity of its object.

The conference panel aims to reconceptualize the grand strategy of the Philippines. The panel adopts the International Relations (IR) influenced definition that focuses on the foreign and security policies as the source of evidence for the development of grand strategy. Moreover, it follows the “unscripted” approach in studying grand strategy because this is more flexible and appropriate for small states such as the Philippines. The panel is composed of three papers. The first paper by Ibarra defines the framework and clarifies the foundations of the panel. The second paper by Salazar examines the multilateral diplomacy component of the grand strategy by looking at the distinct shared practices that the Philippines have contributed to promote multilateral cooperation through the conduct of its foreign policy. The third paper by Domingo focuses on the military modernization component of the grand strategy by evaluating the prospects of building a cyber force in the Philippines.

D2.1

Articulating a Philippine Grand Strategy

Edcel John A. Ibarra

University of the Philippines Diliman

The Philippines has a grand strategy. While there is scant evidence that the Philippines has adhered to grand‐strategic plans or principles, there are signs that it has exhibited grand‐strategic behavior because of continuities in its foreign and security policies. Operationalizing grand strategy as a consistent pattern of behavior reduces bias, but odds are also stacked against observing policy continuities in the Philippines. The most significant analytical advantage of a behavior-based operationalization is that it is the most appropriate approach for studying the grand strategies of small states. This is because it does not require the existence of a national security strategy or a foreign policy doctrine to indicate the presence of a grand strategy. Building on these considerations, I argue that a Philippine grand strategy is evident in continuities in the country’s foreign and security policies on the South China Sea from 1995 to 2022 under the successive administrations of Ramos, Estrada, Arroyo, Aquino III, and Duterte. The grand strategy has five component policies: (1) bilateral diplomacy with China, (2) multilateral diplomacy through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), (3) grounding in the law of the sea, (4) maintaining the alliance with the US, and (5) modernizing the military.

D2.2

Examining Philippine Grand Strategy from a Practice-based Approach: Insights from Transnational Climate Governance Networks in ASEAN

Virgemarie A. Salazar

University of the Philippines Diliman

Articulating a grand strategy is not exclusive to great powers for all states have a grand strategy based on the perception of their role in international politics. Likewise, a grand strategy is not limited to traditional security goals for it should encompass all vital interests that guarantee the security of the state and the welfare of its people. The study suggests situating climate change at the core of Philippine grand strategy given the vulnerability of Filipinos to climate risks and strengthening multilateral cooperation in ASEAN as an important venue for pursuing common goals on climate change. To have a better appreciation of formulating a holistic and inclusive grand strategy, the study examined transnational climate networks in ASEAN to gain insights on their participatory governance approach. It highlighted the significance of integrating knowledge-based practices that promote collective learning in conceptualizing a Philippine grand strategy.

D2.3

Modernizing the Military by Building a Cyber Force

Francis C. Domingo

University of the Philippines Diliman

Cyberspace has evolved as a strategic domain for cooperation and conflict among states. Powerful states have exploited the permanent dependence on cyber-enabled technologies to strengthen the global economy while covertly advancing their national security interest. On the other hand, weaker states are struggling to develop cyber capabilities while grappling with sophisticated cyber intrusions. Indeed, states now consider hostile actions in cyberspace as the new normal in geopolitics. While the defense and military communities are still trying to decipher how cyber operations can complement its military modernization, around 60 states have established cyber forces that possess the capability and authority to conduct aggressive operations in cyberspace. The alarming number of cyber intrusions against government agencies has intensified the discussions about creating a cyber force. In this context, the paper explores the prospects of developing a cyber force as part of the military modernization of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). It argues that the AFP is struggling to develop a cyber force because of two reasons: the lack of strategic appreciation regarding cyber power and the internal security oriented strategic culture that influences the priorities of the military. The paper examined this argument by drawing on newly published government documents as well as the substantive literature on cyber strategy and policy, anchored on the social sciences. While scholars and analysts have written on cyber issues in the Philippines, existing studies are mostly technical in nature and do not address debates on cyber strategy and policy.

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